{"id":7775,"date":"2013-06-11T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-06-11T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/almega-bento\/wp\/blog\/2013\/06\/11\/vantelage-i-tjanstesektorn-almegas-tjansteindikator-q2-2013\/"},"modified":"2023-02-14T15:02:50","modified_gmt":"2023-02-14T14:02:50","slug":"vantelage-i-tjanstesektorn-almegas-tjansteindikator-q2-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.almega.se\/2013\/06\/vantelage-i-tjanstesektorn-almegas-tjansteindikator-q2-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e4ntel\u00e4ge i tj\u00e4nstesektorn<br>&#8211; Almegas Tj\u00e4nsteindikator Q2 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>L\u00e5g efterfr\u00e5gan, svag produktivitetsutveckling och prispress talar f\u00f6r svagare utveckling f\u00f6r syssels\u00e4ttningen i tj\u00e4nstesektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under f\u00f6rsta kvartalet i \u00e5r \u00f6kade tj\u00e4nsteproduktionen med 3,2 procent fr\u00e5n motsvarande kvartal 2012, kalenderkorrigerat, enligt nationalr\u00e4kenskaperna. Utfallet gick i motsatt riktning j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn som pekat p\u00e5 n\u00e4ra nolltillv\u00e4xt. \u00c4nd\u00e5 har tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn historiskt sett varit en tr\u00e4ffs\u00e4ker indikator f\u00f6r tj\u00e4nsteproduktionens riktning. Skillnaden mellan f\u00f6retagens svar i KI-barometern, som tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn utg\u00e5r ifr\u00e5n, och utfallet enligt SCB:s siffror \u00e4r nu ovanligt stor. Med andra ord har f\u00f6retagens f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om f\u00f6rsta kvartalets efterfr\u00e5gan och produktion indikerat en betydligt svagare utveckling \u00e4n utfallet enligt SCB. Almega pekar i denna rapport p\u00e5 ett antal f\u00f6rklaringar till denna stora diskrepans, men utg\u00e5r fr\u00e5n att f\u00f6retagens svar i KI-barometern fortfarande speglar den underliggande konjunkturutvecklingen f\u00f6r tj\u00e4nstesektorn inom n\u00e4ringslivet i Sverige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn f\u00f6r andra kvartalet pekar p\u00e5 n\u00e4rmast of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrad produktionsniv\u00e5 j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med motsvarande kvartal f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Tj\u00e4nstesektorn ser d\u00e4rmed ut att ha intagit v\u00e4ntel\u00e4ge inf\u00f6r den konjunkturf\u00f6rb\u00e4ttring som f\u00f6retagen f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig under det n\u00e4rmaste halv\u00e5ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starkast tillv\u00e4xt under f\u00f6rsta kvartalet visade f\u00f6retag inom v\u00e5rd och omsorg, utbildning, h\u00e4lso- och sjukv\u00e5rd samt finanssektorn. Dessutom bidrog en del av f\u00f6retagstj\u00e4nstbranschen samt fastighetsbolag i relativt stor omfattning till den ov\u00e4ntat h\u00f6ga tillv\u00e4xtsiffran f\u00f6r den privata tj\u00e4nstesektorn.<br>Almegas arbetsmarknadsindikator har pekat p\u00e5 att syssels\u00e4ttningen under \u00e5rets f\u00f6rsta kvartal skulle b\u00f6rja falla, men utfallet blev klart b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, det vill s\u00e4ga en \u00f6kning med 2,4 procent j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med f\u00f6rsta kvartalet f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna om \u00f6kad efterfr\u00e5gan under resten av \u00e5ret kan ligga bakom den positiva utvecklingen. \u00c4nd\u00e5 har relativt stora neddragningar genomf\u00f6rts inom delar av tj\u00e4nstesektorn. Varslen om upps\u00e4gning steg under f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret inom den privata tj\u00e4nstesektorn, som svarade f\u00f6r 45 procent av det totala antalet varsel. Almegas indikator visar fortsatt f\u00f6rsvagning av syssels\u00e4ttningen inom den privata tj\u00e4nstesektorn under andra kvartalet. F\u00f6retagens h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar om \u00f6kad efterfr\u00e5gan under andra kvartalet ser inte ut att infrias, vilket talar f\u00f6r fler neddragningar av personal. Fortsatt svag efterfr\u00e5gan samt svag pris- och produktivitetstillv\u00e4xt bidrar sannolikt till fortsatta neddragningar inom tj\u00e4nstesektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almegas prisindikator pekar p\u00e5 att pris\u00f6kningstakten ligger kvar p\u00e5 en l\u00e5g niv\u00e5. Indikatorn ligger nu p\u00e5 53,4, vilket \u00e4r n\u00e4ra 50, den punkt d\u00e4r priserna \u00e4r ungef\u00e4r of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade. Det \u00e4r dock skillnad mellan prisutvecklingen inom handel och \u00f6vriga tj\u00e4nsten\u00e4ringar. Indikatorn pekar p\u00e5 en tydlig fortsatt avmattning av pris\u00f6kningarna inom handeln, medan \u00f6vriga tj\u00e4nster visar p\u00e5 en liten \u00f6kning av pris\u00f6kningstakten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lena Hagman och Linnea Kvist<br>Stockholm 11 juni 2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td>\n<ul>\n<li><a title=\"Tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn_Q2_2013_A.pdf\" href=\"\/app\/uploads\/imported\/Tjansteindikatorn-Q2-2013-A.pdf\"><span style=\"color: #0066cc;\">L\u00e4s hela rapporten<\/span><\/a> (pdf)<\/li>\n<li><a title=\"Tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn_Q2_2013_kort_A.pdf\" href=\"\/app\/uploads\/imported\/Tjansteindikatorn-Q2-2013-kort-A.pdf\"><span style=\"color: #0066cc;\">L\u00e4s kortversion av rapporten<\/span><\/a> (pdf)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td><td><a title=\"Tj\u00e4nsteindikatorn_Q2_2013_A.pdf\" href=\"\/app\/uploads\/imported\/Tjansteindikatorn-Q2-2013-A.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/app\/uploads\/imported\/Tjansteindikatorn-2013-Q2.jpg\" alt=\"Tjansteindikatorn_2013_Q2.jpg\"><\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u00e5g efterfr\u00e5gan, svag produktivitetsutveckling och prispress talar f\u00f6r svagare utveckling f\u00f6r syssels\u00e4ttningen i tj\u00e4nstesektorn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[581],"tags":[50],"article_type":[56,42],"agreement":[],"class_list":["post-7775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tjanstesektorns-betydelse","tag-tjanstesektorns-utveckling","type-nyheter","type-rapporter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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